Tajikistan
Profile
Tajikistan and Afghanistan share deep cultural and historical ties that have intimately affected their politics and security with shifting alliances and interests. In the Soviet-Afghan War, Tajiks supported and fought on both sides. After the Soviet withdrawal and eventual breakup, some of the Tajik mujahideen returned to form the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), which opposed the government of communist leader Emomali Rahmonov, resulting in the 1992-97 civil war. The Afghan government of Rabbani supported the IRP until the forced takeover of Kabul by the Taliban. The swift Taliban advancement and increasing threat from the group pressured the Rahmonov government and the IRP to bring an end to the civil war. Dushanbe then reversed its previous policy and supported its former foe, the Northern Alliance, against its new enemy, the Taliban. Following the attacks of September 11, Dushanbe joined the US-led coalition to oust the Taliban and later tried to establish greater economic ties with the new Afghan government. As a result, several major infrastructure projects were planned to run through Afghanistan, including the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission Project (CASA-1000). Through the 1990s and after the US invasion of Afghanistan, Tajikistan remained the preferred route to transport narcotics to China, Russia, and Europe. Most of the opium and heroin—as much as 100 metric tons per year—transits through Tajikistan. Drug trafficking is estimated to comprise 30% of Tajikistan’s economy while also being the source of revenue for jihadi militant groups (i.e., IMU) that have been fighting the government. Tajik authorities Since the second takeover of the Taliban in August 2021, unlike its Central Asian neighbors, Tajikistan has taken a sharply critical view. Dushanbe unofficially hosts the leadership of the National Resistance Front. At the same time, President Rahmon has condemned the Taliban regime for violating human, especially Tajik rights, and failing to form an inclusive government.
Key Interests & Priorities
1. Spillover of Insecurity
Tajikistan is concerned about the spillover of instability from the Taliban takeover and an incursion by the anti-Dushanbe terrorist organization. Before and after Kabul's fall, Tajikistan sought to fortify its 1,344-kilometer border with Afghanistan. However, in June 2021, the Taliban had put Jamaat Ansarullah, a Tajik terrorist group, in charge of five districts in Badakhshan along the Tajikistan border. Tajikistan held a combat-readiness exercise in late July 2021, reinforcing its border with 20,000 troops in response to the Taliban taking over large swaths of the country's north. Tajikistan also conducted an anti-terror drill with China on August 18. In October, the CSTO held exercises near the Tajik-Afghan border, designed to demonstrate that Moscow stands ready to protect Dushanbe in the event of an incursion from the south. Sharing the same concerns, China is reportedly funding the construction of a new base near Afghanistan's border. Dushanbe remains concerned that the Jamaat Ansarullah militants plan to cross the border and overthrow the government in Tajikistan.
2. Narcotics
Since the 1990s, Tajikistan has been gravely affected by the trafficking of narcotics from Afghanistan into China, Russia, and Europe. Part of the northern distribution network, Tajikistan is the largest export route, with as much as 20% of all Afghan drugs moving through the country. The drug trade is estimated to make up 30% of Tajikistan's GDP. International efforts to fight drug trafficking over the past three decades have been unsuccessful. Responsibility for the large volume of opium and heroin trafficking has often been assigned to Islamist groups such as the Taliban, local and regional Islamist networks, such as the IMU, criminal groups, and Tajik authorities. President Rahmon, his family, and his close circles are believed to be among the main beneficiaries of the trafficking activities. In 2022, Dushanbe announced 2021 drug interdiction volume increased by 69% yearly. In addition, the economic collapse in neighboring Afghanistan has worsened the problem, leaving more people vulnerable to the drug trade. Dushanbe is also concerned about the rise of the Afghan-made methamphetamine industry. Afghanistan could become a major supplier as demand rises globally. In addition to opium and heroin, many traffickers are now moving meth, using existing infrastructure, routes, and bribery schemes.
3. Inclusive Government
Tajikistan wants the creation of an inclusive state that includes a strong representation of the Tajik ethnic group. Dushanbe wants to see an inclusive government bring security, stability and predictability to the Afghan affairs.